# ASKQA Ocean — Corridor Research Report

Generated: 2026-07-06T08:10:31.027Z

**Customer:** Demo Auto Importer  
**Lane:** Singapore to Rotterdam via Suez  
**Vessel:** MV YM INCREMENT  
**Cargo exposure:** $0

---

## 1. War-Risk & Route Cost Scenario

At baseline war-risk (0.2% hull), Suez scenario ~$300,000. Cape fallback ~$1,119,450 (+12d). Spike band (0.7%) pushes Suez to ~$1,050,000.

| Scenario | ETA | Total scenario cost | War-risk % | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Suez / Red Sea transit (baseline war-risk band) | 28d | $300,000 | 0.2% | Lower cash cost at baseline band — monitor JWC listed-area updates. |
| Suez / Red Sea transit (post-attack spike band) | 28d | $1,050,000 | 0.7% | Still competitive vs Cape at spike — verify insurer quote. |
| Cape of Good Hope fallback | 40d | $1,119,450 | 0% | +12d ETA, no listed-area war-risk premium — higher fuel and operating cost. |

**Guardrail:** Scenario analysis for importer ops — not an insurance quote. Confirm with broker before voyage commit.


## 2. Compliance & Counterparty Exposure

No high-confidence hits on pilot names — continue OFAC pass and customer evidence.

| Target | Status | Risk | Hits | Topics |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MV YM INCREMENT | ofac_clear | low | 0 | — |
| MV KOTA HAKIM | ofac_clear | low | 0 | — |

**Deceptive shipping flags:** Full dark-fleet detection requires satellite SAR — we flag sample AIS behavior only.

**Guardrail:** First-pass counterparty screen — not legal clearance or dark-fleet intelligence.


## 3. Route Emissions & Cost Comparison

Cape fallback adds ~476 t CO₂ and ~$99,450 fuel vs Suez on this lane. EU ETS shadow add ~$16,199.

| Route | Distance (nm) | ETA | Fuel (t) | CO₂ (t) | Fuel cost |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Suez / Red Sea direct | 11800 | 28d | 531 | 1654 | $345,150 |
| Cape of Good Hope fallback | 15200 | 40d | 684 | 2130 | $444,600 |

**Cape vs Suez delta:** +476 t CO₂, +$99,450 fuel, EU ETS shadow +$16,199.

**Guardrail:** Estimate using public emission factors — not a regulatory compliance filing.


## 4. Micro-Port Pressure Watch

Singapore shows clear pressure (3 AIS sample hits).

| Port | Band | AIS sample | Importer pain |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Chittagong (BDCGP) | clear | 0 | Production slot risk when berth queue rises |
| Singapore (SGSIN) | clear | 3 | Transshipment miss when hub congested |

**Guardrail:** Lane-specific micro-port watch — not global real-time berth queue data.


---

## Human approval

All customer-facing actions, route commits, and external notices require operator sign-off. This report combines official open data, scenario math, and AIS sample — not legal clearance or insurance quotes.

**ASKQA Ocean Corridor Risk Desk** — Compliance Evidence from $3,500 · Weekly Watch $4,500/mo